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China reports 1,886 new virus cases, death toll up by 98

China reported 1,886 new virus cases and 98 more deaths in its update Tuesday on a disease outbreak that has caused milder illness in most people, an assessment that promoted guarded optimism from global health authorities. The update raised the number of deaths in mainland China to 1,868 and the total confirmed cases to 72,436. Monday's report gives the World Health Organization a clearer picture of where the outbreak is headed, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a news conference. Mon, 17 Feb 2020 21:44:15 -0500

John Bolton breaks his silence after Trump impeachment: 'I knew what I was getting into'

Former national security adviser scant on details about Ukraine, but says he worries ‘effort to write history’ will be censoredJohn Bolton celebrated Presidents’ Day by breaking his silence for the first time since Donald Trump’s impeachment trial – speaking of his frustrations and teasing the content of his forthcoming book.But when it came to his former boss, the president’s former national security adviser was scant on details, hinting that he is restricted in what he can say.Bolton, who left the White House in September following foreign policy disagreements, was interviewed on stage on Monday night at Duke University in Durham, North Carolina.It was his first public speech since Trump’s impeachment trial where – despite repeated appeals by Democrats for him to testify, and Bolton’s stated willingness to do so if subpoenaed – he did not speak.But following the leak of a draft of his unpublished forthcoming memoir, which reportedly described how Trump told him he wanted to delay US military aid to Ukraine until it agreed to investigate Democrats, including presidential hopeful Joe Biden, his shadow loomed large over proceedings – which ended in Trump’s acquittal.Duke did not allow audio recording or livestreaming at the main event. Interviewer Peter Feaver, a professor of political science and public policy at the university, is understood to have told the audience that the restrictions were due to Bolton’s contract.But journalists present at the event live tweeted Bolton’s comments as the pair spoke on stage.Asked about Trump’s tweets about him, Bolton is reported to have said he could not comment, pending a White House review of the manuscript for his forthcoming book. “He tweets, but I can’t talk about it. How fair is that?” he said, according to one reporter present.When asked on Monday what it was like to staff Trump’s 2018 meeting with Putin in Helsinki, Bolton reportedly said: “To pursue the right policies for America, I was willing to put up with a lot.”“I’m not asking for martyrdom,” he added. “I knew, I think I knew, what I was getting into.”According to CNN, Bolton and his lawyers have been battling with the White House about the book, scheduled to be published under the title The Room Where it Happened next month.The Trump administration is reportedly concerned about the inclusion of classified information protected by executive privilege. CNN reports that the White House records management is reviewing the book.During Monday’s talk, he appeared to repeatedly trail the memoir.On the subject of Helsinki, he also replied – reportedly to audience groans: “I could read a chapter form my book here and give you the answer to that question.”After a question about whether he agreed with Trump that his 25 July call was “perfect”, he said: “You will love chapter 14”.He also reportedly referred to “censorship” of the manuscript. “This is an effort to write history … We’ll see what happens with the censorship,” he said.Outside the venue, dozens of protesters gathered for a “The People v John Bolton Rally”. A Facebook page promoting the event described Bolton as “architect of the Iraq war, Islamophobe and war criminal” and criticised Duke for hosting him as an “esteemed speaker”.His Duke visit is the first of two university appearances this week. On Wednesday he is due to speak with Barack Obama national security adviser Susan Rice at Vanderbilt University in Nashville on the subject of “defining US global leadership”. Mon, 17 Feb 2020 20:56:20 -0500

UN: Impact of long Libya war on civilians is `incalculable'

The U.N humanitarian coordinator for Libya said Monday the impact of the country’s nine-year war on civilians “is incalculable,” pointing to its intensity escalating “exponentially” since a rebel commander launched an offensive last April, casualties rising and almost 900,000 people now needing assistance. Yacoub El Hillo said a 55-point road map for ending the war in Libya which was agreed to by 12 key leaders at a conference in Berlin on Jan. 19, endorsed last week by the U.N. Security Council, and reaffirmed at a meeting in Munich on Sunday has seen “serious violations” in the last 10 days, with new strikes in and around the capital Tripoli. The Berlin peace plan backed a cease-fire, called for compliance with a U.N. arms embargo, and said all countries must refrain from interfering in the conflict between the U.N.-recognized government and the rebel forces of self-styled Gen. Khalifa Hifter, and the country’s internal affairs. Mon, 17 Feb 2020 20:39:33 -0500

Bolton Warns of Possible ‘Censorship’ of His White House Memoir

(Bloomberg) -- Former National Security Advisor John Bolton raised alarm the Trump administration could block his memoir that describes his interaction with the president over Ukraine.“I hope it’s not suppressed,” Bolton said Monday in a talk at Duke University in Durham, North Carolina. “This is an effort to write history, and I did it the best I can. We’ll have to see what comes out of the censorship.”Bolton added later: “I say things in the manuscript about what he said to me,” referring to Trump. “I hope they become public someday. He tweets but I can’t talk about it. How fair is that?”Bolton said he couldn’t answer a question related to North Korea because it’s also included in his book, which is undergoing pre-publication review by the government. The Trump administration already has raised concern about the manuscript divulging secret information.The event was Bolton’s first public appearance since Trump’s impeachment trial was roiled over a New York Times report that Bolton would publish a memoir alleging that the president explicitly said he wanted to condition security assistance to Ukraine on an investigation into former Vice President Joe Biden and his son, Hunter.The report raised pressure on Senate Republicans to call witnesses in the trial and undermined the White House’s claim that Trump never sought a quid pro quo for U.S. military aid to Ukraine. But Trump denied the allegations -- tweeting that the news emerged only because Bolton sought “to sell a book” -- and Senate Republicans ultimately voted against calling Bolton or other witnesses before voting to acquit the president.Chapter 14At the event on Monday, Bolton was asked whether he agreed with Trump’s characterization of his call with Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, as “perfect.” Bolton responded: “You’ll love chapter 14.”But Bolton made clear his book covers more than Ukraine.“There are portions of the manuscript that deal with Ukraine,” he said. “I view that like the sprinkles on the ice cream sundae, meaning, in terms of what’s in the book.”Bolton’s manuscript also reportedly alleges that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo privately acknowledged there was little credence to Rudy Giuliani’s claims that former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch was corrupt. Bolton also reportedly wrote that he told Attorney General William Barr that the president had mentioned him on a call with the Ukrainian president. The Justice Department has denied that Barr knew Trump suggested the Ukrainians coordinate their investigations with the attorney general.Bolton also reportedly wrote that he told Barr he had concerns Trump had granted personal favors to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey and President Xi Jinping of China.NSC ResponseBolton’s memoir, “The Room Where It Happened,” is scheduled to be released on March 17. But in a letter to Bolton’s lawyer, the National Security Council said the manuscript “appears to contain significant amounts of classified information” and should not be published as written.Bolton said Monday his intention isn’t to reveal classified material. Instead, he said he sought to tell readers what unfolded and allow them to decide whether it was appropriate.On other topics, Bolton criticized the administration’s approach to handling nuclear proliferation in North Korea as “a big mistake” and said the U.S. pursuit of negotiations with leader Kim Jong Un is “doomed to failure.” He also said Trump’s approach toward Iran is too lenient and a failure.Bolton left Trump’s administration in September after repeated disagreements with the president. He had advised Trump against a plan to hold peace talks with the Taliban at Camp David immediately before he was ousted, and Trump complained Bolton was “holding me back” in a campaign to depose Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.One of Bolton’s deputies, Fiona Hill, testified in the House impeachment inquiry that Bolton had called Giuliani, the president’s personal lawyer, a “hand grenade who’s going to blow everybody up” for his conduct on Trump’s behalf in Ukraine.Bolton has publicly sparred with Trump since leaving the White House, disputing the president’s claims of success in nuclear negotiations with North Korea and defending former White House Chief of Staff John Kelly after the president attacked him in tweets.Bolton, ousted from the White House in September, is scheduled to speak again on Wednesday, at Vanderbilt University in Nashville, Tennessee.(Updates with Trump comment in third paragraph.)To contact the reporters on this story: Jennifer Jacobs in Durham at jjacobs68@bloomberg.net;Justin Sink in Washington at jsink1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Alex Wayne at awayne3@bloomberg.net, Justin Blum, Vince GolleFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P. Mon, 17 Feb 2020 19:51:50 -0500

Pete Buttigieg's next test: Winning over minority voters

Now the promise of his candidacy is colliding with the reality of the central question about his viability: Can he win among minority voters who form the critical foundation of the party’s base? Buttigieg's strategy is to earn a fresh look from black and brown voters by flashing his support in the first two contests, drawing on the validation of minority leaders who have endorsed him and leveraging the personal networks of his supporters. With the South Carolina primary rapidly approaching Feb. 29, he faces a steep climb. Mon, 17 Feb 2020 17:15:21 -0500

Apple Sales Will Miss; U.S. Cruisers Quarantined: Virus Update

(Bloomberg) -- A case study of a patient who died from the new coronavirus shows similarities with two prior deadly coronavirus outbreaks. Apple Inc. said it would miss its quarterly revenue target because of the virus.The U.S. evacuated citizens from the Diamond Princess cruise liner, including 14 who tested positive for the virus, and will quarantine more than 300 passengers. The U.S. is still figuring out what to do with American passengers on another cruise ship who disembarked in Cambodia, including one who tested positive.Beijing may delay a high-profile political meeting for the first time in decades because of the coronavirus outbreak that has infected more than 71,000 and killed 1,775 globally. Key DevelopmentsChina death toll 1,770, up 105; mainland cases rise to 70,548Hubei adds 1,933 new cases, up from 1,843 a day earlierFour missed chances for China to contain outbreakFears of global contagion as 3,000 cruise passengers go homeClick VRUS on the terminal for news and data on the novel coronavirus and here for maps and charts. For analysis of the impact from Bloomberg Economics, click here.Apple to Miss Guidance Because of Virus (4:15 p.m. NY)Apple Inc. doesn’t expect to meet its revenue guidance for the quarter ending in March due to work slowdowns from the outbreak of coronavirus in China. The company said it anticipates global supply of the iPhone to be “temporarily constrained.”Read the full story here.Japan Cruisers Quarantined; Westerdam Passengers Loose (3:19 p.m. NY)More than 300 U.S. citizens evacuated from the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan have returned home to begin a 14-day quarantine on military bases and for treatment in hospitals.The repatriation ends a dramatic episode on the virus-struck ship, but came with a fresh complication: As the U.S. cruise passengers were on a bus heading for Tokyo’s Haneda Airport, Japanese test results showed that 14 had the virus. And a positive test from another cruise ship that disembarked passengers in Cambodia has raised concerns about further spread of the virus around the globe.Of the Japan evacuees, 171 will be held at Travis Air Force Base between San Francisco and Sacramento, with six people sent to a local hospital for treatment, said William Walters, a senior official with the State Department‘s Bureau of Medical Services.A further 144 passengers evacuated on a separate flight will be housed at Lackland Air Force Base near San Antonio, Texas. Seven people on that flight were flown on to Omaha for treatment at the University of Nebraska.The newly diagnoses cases involved people who did not show any symptoms of the coronavirus but were diagnosed by Japanese lab tests, Walters said.The fate of hundreds of Americans coming off another cruise ship now docked in Cambodia is less clear. One of the passengers, an 83-year-old woman, was diagnosed with the virus while passing through Malaysia, and is being held in isolation there. Roughly 300 U.S. citizens who were on the Westerdam have left Cambodia, according to the State Department. But 92 remain on the ship and a further 260 are staying in hotels in Phnom Penh, the Cambodian capital.Walter said the U.S. government was tracking those citizens but had not yet made a decision on whether to send special flights to bring them home. Health officials across the world have said that catching and isolating cases of the virus before it spreads is crucial to stopping it.Damage Cause by Virus Resembles SARS, MERS (2 p.m. NY)Doctors studying a 50-year-old man who died in China last month from the new coronavirus found that the disease caused lung damage reminiscent of two prior coronavirus-related outbreaks, SARS and MERS.Read the full story here.Cruise Travel Risks Remain ‘Manageable’ Despite Virus, WHO Says: (12 p.m. NY)Cruise ship travel remains a “manageable risk” for now, and it doesn’t make sense to recommend a ban on it, the World Health Organization said, even as the return home of 3,000 travelers from two coronavirus-stricken cruise ships fuels fears of further contagion.“People say we should steer clear of cruise ships, or steer clear of airports or steer clear of certain ethnic groups,” Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO’s Health Emergencies Program, said at a press briefing Monday at the organization’s Geneva headquarters. “We have to be really careful” of such suggestions. “We need an approach to managing risk that allows us to continue to operate as a society.”Hong Kong Virus Stress Worsens With Maids, Nannies Stuck Abroad: (11:05 a.m. NY)The Philippine ban on travel to Hong Kong is taking its toll on migrant workers, mostly women, who are part of Hong Kong’s domestic labor force. In a survey of more than 900 Filipina domestic workers in Hong Kong by placement agency HelperChoice, almost half said they were affected by the travel ban or knew someone who was.Virus Outbreak Boosts Tissue Paper Prospects in China (10:30 a.m. NY)As the outbreak ripples through China’s economy, one industry seems to be thriving. Shares of tissue paper maker Vinda International Holdings have surged 40% this year even as the main Hong Kong index is little changed. The rally may have legs. Top pulp exporter Suzano SA expects growth in China’s tissue market to accelerate amid shifts in hygiene habits.El Al CEO Sees Hard Days Ahead for Israeli Airline: (9 a.m. NY)El Al Israel Airlines is facing difficulties because of the spread of the coronavirus and may be forced to make some “painful decisions,” CEO Gonen Usishkin said in a letter to staff, without specifying what that may entail.A decision by Israel’s Health Ministry on Sunday to send travelers returning from Thailand into home quarantine for 14 days has cut demand for this destination, and the company is allowing customers to change or cancel tickets, the CEO said. Last week, the carrier suspended flights to Hong Kong until March 20 and flights to Beijing until April 24.Slump in Global Goods Trade Likely to Deepen: WTO (7:30 a.m. NY)The already slumping state of global goods trade may get even worse with coronavirus, the World Trade Organization warned.The Geneva-based body said its merchandise trade barometer fell to 95.5 from 96.6 in November. That’s before factoring in the effects of China’s health crisis on international commerce.“The slow start could be dampened further by global health threats and other recent developments in the first few months of the year,” the WTO said. In the months ahead, “every component of the Goods Trade Barometer will be influenced by the economic impact of COVID-19 and the effectiveness of efforts to treat and contain the disease.”China Sees Positive Trend in Coronavirus Epidemic: CCTV (7 a.m. NY)China’s anti-virus efforts have led to a positive trend for the epidemic nationwide, according to China Central Television, which cited Premier Li Keqiang’s comments at a meeting. The spread of coronavirus has weakened, and China has avoided a wider outbreak through all-out control, Li was quoted as saying.Top policymakers are seeking to balance the anti-virus fight with shoring up the economy, which has been running at just 40% to 50% capacity in the last week, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.Bundesbank Warns of Hit to German Exporters (6 a.m. NY)The central bank called the outbreak a “cyclical downside risk” and said a temporary decline in overall Chinese demand could damp German export activity. “Moreover, some global value chains could be impaired by security measures put in place,” the Bundesbank said in a report.Outside the European Union, China is second only to the U.S. in importance to German companies, with close to $108 billion of sales a year. The European Commission last week called the epidemic a “key downside risk” to its forecasts, while European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane said the region’s economy could experience a “pretty serious short-term hit.”China’s Economy Seen Growing Slowest Since 1990 (6:52 p.m. HK)The coronavirus outbreak and China’s efforts to stop the spread mean the economy will grow slower this quarter than first thought -- the median forecast now is for growth to be the slowest in 30 years.China’s gross domestic product will grow 4% in the first quarter, according to the median of 18 forecasts since Jan. 31. That’s down from 5.9% in the last survey on Jan. 22 and the lowest level since 1990.Chinese City to Start Subsidizing Car Purchases (5:57 p.m. HK)The southern Chinese city of Foshan will start providing rebates for car purchases starting March 1. Consumers who trade in old models will be entitled to 3,000 yuan ($430) of subsidies while buyers who opt for new cars are entitled to 2,000 yuan per vehicle.President Xi Jinping has urged local governments to help boost auto sales, according to a speech by him carried on Qiushi Journal, the Communist Party’s top publication on Saturday.Singapore Issues Stricter Rules for China Returnees (5:34 p.m. HK)Singapore residents or long-term pass holders returning from mainland China must stay in their homes at all times for 14 days and closely monitor their own health, under stricter guidelines issued today.Macau Casinos Allowed to Reopen (5:30 p.m. HK)Casinos in the world’s biggest gambling hub will be able to resume operations on Thursday, following an unprecedented closure for 15 days to curb the spread of the coronavirus. Lei Wai Nong, secretary for economy and finance in the Chinese territory of Macau, said casinos can reopen Feb. 20, though it will be conditional based on criteria that he didn’t specify.Macau closed casinos for a 15-day period that began Feb. 5, in the longest shutdown ever for the world’s biggest gambling hub. MGM said it’s losing $1.5 million a day in Macau, while Wynn Resorts Ltd. said it is losing about $2.5 million a day.Earlier, Sands China President Wilfred Wong told Cable TV he expects few customers when casinos first re-open, and believes it will take two-to-three months before business can return to normal.China May Delay Annual CPPCC Meeting: CCTV (5:09 p.m. HK)Beijing is studying a proposal to delay the annual session of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, the nation’s political advisory body, state-run China Central Television reported.This follows an official Xinhua report that said China is considering delaying the annual session of the National People’s Congress, its most high-profile annual political meeting, for the first time in decades. The two meetings were originally scheduled to start early March.Japan Says 99 New Infections From Cruise Ship (5:05 p.m. HK)Japan said 99 more people from the Diamond Princess cruise tested positive for the new coronavirus, bringing the total number of infections to 454.A pair of aircraft chartered by the U.S. State Department took off early Monday to bring home Americans from the ship. Australia and Hong Kong will also use chartered flights to evacuate citizens and permanent residents who have been stranded on the ship.Cathay Pacific Warns on Results (4:45 p.m. HK)First-half financial results will be “significantly down” from a year earlier, Cathay Chief Customer and Commercial Officer Ronald Lam said in a statement. Cathay is particularly exposed to the virus because sales from Hong Kong and China account for about half of its total revenue.Separately, China’s three largest airlines reported declines in January passenger traffic because of the coronavirus outbreak, with the shortfalls likely to deepen this month as the epidemic continues to disrupt travel for millions of people. Airlines began suspending flights from about Jan. 23 after the government began locking down Wuhan and other Chinese cities.U.S. Factories in China Don’t Have Enough Staff (3:57 p.m. HK)Most U.S. factories in China’s manufacturing hub around Shanghai will be back at work this week, but the “severe” shortage of workers due to the coronavirus will hit production and global supply chains, according to the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai.While about 90% of the 109 U.S. manufacturers in the Yangtze River delta expect to resume production this week, 78% of them said they don’t have sufficient staff to run at full speed, according to a survey by AmCham.Beijing Auto Show Delayed (3:48 p.m. HK)China’s annual auto show, scheduled to be held in Beijing in April, will be pushed back because of the coronavirus outbreak. The new dates will be announced later, the organizer said in a statement on Monday.Taiwan Scours Taxi Driver’s Data to Trace Virus Path (12:44 p.m. HK)Health authorities in Taiwan are scouring travel histories, phone records and security camera footage in an effort to map out everyone who came into contact with a taxi driver who became Taiwan’s first confirmed death from the coronavirus.The victim, a man in his 60s from central Taiwan who died Saturday, had not recently traveled overseas and had no recorded contact with any of the 19 other people diagnosed with the coronavirus in Taiwan, according to a statement from Taiwan’s Centers for Disease Control.Singapore, Thailand Cuts Growth Outlooks (12:32 p.m. HK)Singapore and Thailand downgraded their forecasts for economic growth this year as the coronavirus outbreak hits tourism and trade.Singapore’s Ministry of Trade & Industry projected growth in a range of -0.5% to 1.5% in 2020, compared with a previous estimate of 0.5% to 2.5%. The city state, which has more than 70 cases of virus infections, is losing as many as 20,000 tourists a day amid travel curbs.Growth in Thailand is seen in a range of 1.5%-2.5% this year, down from a previous projection of 2.7%-3.7%, the National Economic and Social Development Council said.Bridgewater, Dalio Donate $10 Million for Virus Fight (12:27 p.m. HK)Billionaire Ray Dalio’s family charity and his hedge fund Bridgewater Associates LP are donating $10 million to help support China’s coronavirus relief efforts. The money will go to Peking University First Hospital, Union Hospital for Clinical Care and three medical teams led by academics in Wuhan, the world’s largest hedge fund said in an emailed statement Monday.Nintendo Is Likely to Suffer Global Switch Shortages (12:21 p.m. HK)Nintendo Co. is likely to struggle to supply sufficient Switch consoles to its U.S. and European markets as soon as April due to a production bottleneck caused by the coronavirus outbreak, according to people with knowledge of the company’s supply chain.China Stocks Rebound From Sell-off (10:13 a.m. HK)China’s stock benchmark recouped all its losses from a record $720 billion sell-off earlier this month, a sign that investor confidence is improving after policy makers acted to ease the economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak.China’s government has pumped cash into the financial system, trimmed money-market rates and offered targeted tax cuts. Beijing will also allow local governments to sell another 848 billion yuan ($121 billion) of debt before March, as authorities seek to offset the economic shock of the coronavirus.Coronavirus Cases Top 70,000 (9:13 a.m. HK)China reported 2,048 additional coronavirus cases by the end of Feb. 16, bringing the total case count to 70,548, according to a statement from National Health Commission.China’s Hubei province reported 1,933 additional confirmed cases. While that’s slightly higher than a day earlier, it’s in line with a lower trend over the past several days. The province announced a stunning 15,000 new cases on Thursday after revising its method for counting infections.The death toll in China increased by 105 to 1,770. More than 10,000 patients have been discharged so far. There are now five fatalities outside of mainland China, after France and Taiwan reported deaths over the weekend.\--With assistance from Abeer Abu Omar, Ryan Beene, Dong Lyu, Jing Jin, Cindy Wang, K. Oanh Ha, Isabel Reynolds, Tony Czuczka, April Ma, Takashi Mochizuki, Suttinee Yuvejwattana, Siraphob Thanthong-Knight, Natalie Lung, Jason Scott, Shawn Donnan and Vince Golle.To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Steve Geimann in Washington at sgeimann@bloomberg.net;Karen Leigh in Hong Kong at kleigh4@bloomberg.net;Drew Armstrong in New York at darmstrong17@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Rachel Chang at wchang98@bloomberg.net, ;Adveith Nair at anair29@bloomberg.net, Jeff Sutherland, Anne PollakFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P. Mon, 17 Feb 2020 16:28:22 -0500

Cameroon army blames accident for village 'massacre'

Yaoundé (AFP) - Cameroon's army on Monday denied opposition charges that it had massacred villagers in a troubled English-speaking region, blaming instead an "unfortunate accident" caused by an explosion of fuel during a firefight. Up to 22 civilians, 14 of them children, died in the incident on Friday, according to the United Nations -- deaths which opposition parties blamed on members of the armed forces. Five civilians -- a woman and four children -- died, and "seven terrorists" were "neutralised", Atonfack told AFP in Libreville by phone. Mon, 17 Feb 2020 16:04:03 -0500

Vandals cover Plymouth Rock in red graffiti
Mon, 17 Feb 2020 15:02:03 -0500

Britain will develop its own regime to control state aid - Frost
Mon, 17 Feb 2020 14:38:16 -0500

As Trump Gives Up on ‘Endless Wars,' Russia, China, and Iran Move In

JERUSALEM–Two decades of expanding operations against what United States Special Operations Command called a “global insurgency of state and non-state actors” has led to fatigue at home and questions abroad about U.S. strategy. Trump, Afghanistan, and ‘The Tweet of Damocles’The latest Trump administration deal with the Taliban, challenges to the U.S. role in Syria and Iraq, and a potential reduction of forces in Africa point to a global trend in how the U.S. will deal with counter-insurgency in the future. What we’re looking at is a global drawdown in U.S. forces committed to counter-terrorist operations at the same time President Donald Trump is demanding other countries, including NATO allies, do more. The idea is for the U.S. to focus on using technology, such as drones, while local forces do the fighting on the ground.This long-term shift has long-term consequences that mean countries such as Iran, China and Russia, which the U.S. sees as adversaries, will have a larger footprint in places where the U.S. is reducing its role. Outsourcing counter-terrorism to these countries may not have been the plan, but it is likely one outcome.U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo began a tour of Africa on Feb. 16 in Senegal where the Flintlock 2020 exercise is underway with neighboring Mauritania. Some 1,600 soldiers from 30 African states and western allies are participating in the annual drill from February 17-28. The U.S. says it is the year’s “premier special operations” exercise that strengthens security across a swath of countries through what’s called the Trans-Sahara Counter-Terrorism Partnership. The concept, pushed in 2018 via an act of Congress, was to improve the capabilities of countries to fight terror.But the picture is bleaker than past U.S. statements have indicated. Funding to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars to fight terror spread across Niger, Mauritania, Mali, Nigeria and a dozen states from Senegal to Somalia hasn’t reduced terror and has resulted in Washington’s decision to reconsider what comes next. The U.S. pulled forces out of Libya in 2019 and three Americans were killed in an attack on a base in Kenya by Somalia’s Al-Shabab in January.The Other Attack on Americans That Has U.S. Forces Unnerved: KenyaAlthough Pompeo says that “we’ll get it right” in terms of U.S. commitment to a swath of African states, reports indicate the U.S. is reducing the footprint on the ground. Washington has “downgraded” efforts against extremists, the New York Times reported in mid-February. France, which sent hundreds more troops to the Sahel region recently, has warned this is a bad idea. The overall numbers could mean cutting in half the U.S. presence of 5,000 troops in a dozen locations.Changes in Africa strategy are only the tip of the iceberg of a much larger policy shift. On the one hand the U.S. National Defense Strategy wants to move away from counter-insurgency to competing against large states like Iran, China and Russia. The Pentagon believes that “inter-state strategic competition, not terrorism, is now the primary concern in US national security.” Since U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM) expanded from 47,000 in 2007 to 80,000 today, it might be argued that the U.S. has reached peak strength in fighting terror and now can move on successfully. The problem is that from Afghanistan to the Philippines to Niger there has not been a major success.In Afghanistan, where the U.S. has been fighting the Taliban for almost 20 years, some sort of peace deal is in the works. President Donald Trump has sought to end such “endless wars,” and Democrats running to replace him also want to end this one. In Iraq and Syria the U.S. appears to be reducing its role as well. Trump twice announced a withdrawal from Syria only to relent and keep troops to protect “oil” while slowly walking away from America’s anti-ISIS partners in the Syrian Democratic Forces.Plans to use bases in neighboring Iraq to “watch Iran” have not panned out and the U.S. finds itself pressured to leave most of Iraq after tensions with Iran boiled over in January following U.S. decision to blow away near Baghdad airport Iran’s Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani and Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.Meanwhile, rocket fire has targeted U.S. bases and forces near the US embassy almost every week since October 2019.The long-term result in Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, and across Africa can be seen symbolically in what is already happening in the Philippines. For two decades Washington and Manila worked closely against extremist groups. Now Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte wants to scrap the Visiting Forces Agreement amid increasingly friendly relations with China.For a more isolationist-inclined American public that may not matter, but it does mean China and other countries will aid the Philippines in the fight against Islamist insurgents. That has implications across Asia and the Pacific. In Africa, Russian President Vladimir Putin has set his eyes on a larger role that includes priority access to vital mineral resources. He held a summit in October with African diplomats. Russia’s Wagner group and other contractors play an increasing role in Sudan, the Central African Republic, Libya and Mozambique.In each place where the U.S. seeks a smaller footprint there will be a competition to fill the vacuum.France will try to fill it in Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Burkina Faso, the G5 countries it works with in the Sahel. But in many cases there won’t be NATO powers that share U.S. values doing the heavy lifting. Instead it will be Russia, Iran, China, Turkey, and even Saudi Arabia or India playing a bigger role. That means counter-insurgency that looks more like Riyadh’s campaign in Yemen, Russia’s in Syria and Chechnya, China’s in Xinjiang, Turkey’s in Afrin, or India’s in Kashmir. While that may fit the bill of a Trump administration that wants to spend less American treasure abroad and wants others to do more of the work, in the long term it means a fundamental change in the international role of the United States. It also means that in an attempt to shift resources to confronting major states, the U.S. will provide a vacuum for some of those states precisely–China, Russia and Iran–to play a greater role in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia.Read more at The Daily Beast.Get our top stories in your inbox every day. Sign up now!Daily Beast Membership: Beast Inside goes deeper on the stories that matter to you. Learn more. Mon, 17 Feb 2020 13:08:06 -0500